Matt Buchalter (PlusEVAnalytics): The Actuary Who Prices Bets Like Insurance Risk

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An insurance actuary spends their career pricing uncertain events: how likely a claim is, and how much to charge so the insurer comes out ahead. Swap “claim” for “outcome” and “premium” for “odds,” and you have sports betting. Matt Buchalter, known on social media as @PlusEVAnalytics, has built a following by applying exactly that mindset to betting.

An actuary first

Buchalter works as an actuary with an insurance company in Ontario, Canada, and holds a degree in actuarial science and statistics. That training shows up everywhere in his betting work: careful probability estimates, attention to how risk is priced, and a healthy suspicion of results that look too good.

Poker and horse racing

His gambling background runs deep. At one point he was ranked the number one player in the world in $100 single-table poker tournaments. He has also worked with horse racing syndicates; Sports Handle reported in 2023 that they had placed more than $100 million in bets. Racing syndicates are where much of quantitative betting began, as Bill Benter’s story shows.

PlusEVAnalytics

Today Buchalter focuses on sports modeling. He founded Plus EV Sports Analytics, which offers consulting and education to bettors at every level, and he teaches courses on sports betting analytics. He is also a creator on The Hammer network, run by Rob Pizzola, and has joined Pizzola on the Circles Off podcast to answer listeners’ modeling questions.

His handle sums up the philosophy. Every bet is a price, and the only question is whether that price is positive expected value. For the mechanics, see how to devig odds and our expected value calculator.

Reading the fine print: the Hamlin case

In January 2023, the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals game was cancelled after Bills safety Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field. The NFL decided not to finish the game, which left sportsbooks deciding how to settle season-long bets, such as a team’s total wins, affected by the missing game.

Buchalter held several futures bets involving the two teams, including a $50 bet at +4000 on the Bengals winning exactly 13 regular-season games. He argued that Caesars had settled his bets inconsistently and applied rules meant for single games to season-long wagers, and in February 2023 he filed a claim against the sportsbook in Ontario small claims court.

Whatever the outcome, the episode is a lesson every bettor can use: settlement rules are part of the bet. The same issue causes trouble in arbitrage and promo hedging when two books settle a market differently, as we explain in how to calculate an arbitrage bet.

What you can borrow from Matt Buchalter

1. Price bets like risks. Estimate the probability, compare it with the price, and only take bets where the price pays you for the risk.
2. Size carefully. An actuary never bets the company on one policy. Use a fraction of Kelly and keep bets small relative to your bankroll.
3. Read the house rules. How a book settles voids, cancellations, and pushes can decide whether a bet wins or loses.
4. Keep learning to model. Buchalter teaches modeling because it’s a skill anyone numerate can build, one step at a time.
5. Stand up for fair settlement. If a book settles a bet against its own rules, document it and use the complaint process your state or province provides.